Analysts are optimistic about CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS) The CLASfollowing the announcement of results for the 1HFY2023 year that which ended in June with optimism for the portfolio amid the recovery of tourism.
CGS-CIMB research analysts Natalie Ong and Lock Mun Yee keep an “add” to CLAS in the note of July 28 with an unchanged price target of $1.27 CLAS is an 15.5% upside. “CLAS is our number one pick within the industry because its balanced and diverse portfolio gives stability and potential upside risk to the sector of hospitality and potential opportunities for reconstitution of portfolios.”
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CLAS’s 2QFY2023 end-June revenue per unit of available units (RevPAU) was 99.98% of pre-pandemic or 2QFY2019, levels calculated in local currency terms.
2QFY2023’s RevPAU and 1HFY2023’s by 20% as well as 44% year-on-year up to $139 and $138, respectively with 2QFY2023’s RevPAU rising to the 98% of the pre-Covid-19 proforma RevPAU and portfolio occupancy for 1HFY2023 was 75%.
On an same-store basis six of CLAS’s 8 major markets were over pre-Covid-19 levels. Note ong as well as Lock.
CLAS’s 1HFY2023 income as well as net property earnings (NPI) increased by 30% and 31% in both cases% over the previous year up to $346.9 millions and $154.4 million respectively. This is largely due to improvements in the operational efficiency of the properties along with the addition of fourteen more-long-stay assets in FY2022 as well as 2QFY2023.
Inclusion of the distribution of gains from exchanges that are realized one-time the distribution for stapled securities (DPS) rose 19% year-on-year at 2.78 cents.
Additionally, the rising interest rate and the negative yield spread has led many S-REITs change their strategies to focus on organic growth by implementing assets enhancement programs (AEIs) and put goals for acquisitions on hold The CGS-CIMB analysts write.
The size and diversity allows it to implement strategies to optimize portfolios and assets including divestments forward purchase acquisitions, and opportunities for redevelopment.
In the briefing for results on July 28th, CLAS announced that it has signed an agreement to purchase and sell to sell the four properties located in France in exchange for EUR44.4 millions ($63.4 millions). The price of the sale is approximately 63% over book value, leading to an exit return of around 4% as well as unlocking net profits that amount to EUR0.2 million.
The management expects that the sale will be completed by the end of 4QFY2023.
CLAS is still holding $300 million in divestment profits that are yet to be utilized. It also has AIEs on five properties between 1Q2023 and 2Q2024 and is developing Somerset Liang Court and is scheduled to be completed in 2H2025.
Benefits of reopening “decelerating”
In the meantime, Maybank Securities analyst Krishna Guha reports that they hosted CLAS’s management at a lunch with a selected number of investment professionals. “Questions included the viability in RevPAU growth, the impact of cost pressures and the outlook for investments. Management has stated that rates for hotel rooms are higher than the pre-pandemic level in many markets in addition, forward bookings through 2HFY2023 have been steady.”
Guha remains a “buy” for CLAS with a reaffirmed price goal of $1.20.
CLAS’s RevPAU offers more upsides because occupancy is increasing to previous peak levels, but the most important is restoring flight capacities Guha writes in a note dated July 30. “Further the demand for corporate services is able to withstand changes in corporate mix. The pressure on costs is mitigated by lower requirements for manpower in assets with long-stay or only a few services. As such, operating jaws remain positive. Management is looking for value-added possibilities in prime areas, or brownfield projects that are priced at a reasonable price.”
Guha said that CLAS’s management stated that assets are in good places. This could be due to maturing private funds, a change in ownership of the business line of the current owners as well as the need to reposition assets. The comments of management suggest that market depth is an appealing aspect that is a draw for this US market.
While the demand for Australian accommodation for students is high however, prices are extremely tight and the market isn’t as deep as it is in US He says. “[CLAS’smanagement reaffirmed its goal of 25-30% of its assets being in the category of long-stay. The management, however, is open to other categories of hospitality if they are able to.”
Guha reduces his DPS FY2023/2024 to 3% as well as 1% and 1%, respectively after incorporating the impact of new developments as well as the the acquisition of two rental assets in Japan and Japan, the reduction in margins is offset by the higher cost of borrowing.
The benefits of reopening are diminishing according to him until the recovery of China outbound tourism picks up speed. “That said, a strong schedule of events, the full year contribution of prior acquisitions and the finalization on AEI located at Riverside Hotel Robertson Quay [in Singaporeas well as the development of Standard at Columbia is expected to lead to DPS expansion.”
There are risks, including slow recovery of Chinese tourist arrivals, as well as flight capacity as well as lower margins as well as higher rates of interest the analyst states.
“Leave the party-poppers until the very end’
DBS Group Research, meanwhile seems more cautious, indicating an U-shaped recovery rather than V-shaped ones.
“We find a multitude of reasons that could increase the Singapore tourism industry in 2HFY2023,” note DBS’s analysts on the 28th of July. “While China’s runway for recovery has been questioned over in the last few months, recent statistics show that China has been able to travel outbound even though it’s not in line with investors’ expectations of an upward-sloping recovery.”
Top China markets for outbound trade in Hong Kong and Macau have improved beyond 60% threshold in the most recent month data set for June. Singapore is optimistically positioned in its Asia-Pacific (APAC) group as they say in addition, it is “well-positioned” to take advantage of recovering in the shape of a U.
“Nonetheless we are aware that the focus of attention for international events in the coming months will be focused on the Singapore’s Formula 1 weekend and the opening of concerts in order to provide an increase on this MICE front, which gives a lot of potential for a higher season in 2H2023,” they note. MICE is the term used to describe meetings incentives, conferences, and trade shows.
Thus, DBS stays “buy” on CLAS with an estimated price of $1.30 which is the highest of the three brokerages that are featured.
Singapore properties continue to outperform counterparts in Singapore’s APAC market, with the numbers higher in CLAS’s management contracts hotels, like Citadines Mount Sophia, which is generating rents of 20% over 2QFY2019 levels.
DBS’s analysts anticipate further value in the local market, as CLAS is looking to unlock more rent increases that are variable through the conversion of Ascott Orchard into master leases at the end of 2022.
CLAS is still offering 200 rooms available following its Liang Court redevelopment to add to the portfolio by FY 2025, “an exciting development line-up for the Singapore market” CLAS says.
As of 11.59am at 11.59am, the units in CapitaLand Ascott Trust are trading in a flat price of $1.10.